Threat Analysis

I have to write a 500 word paper addressing the question: "What, in your view, is the greatest threat facing the United States over the next 20 years?" This is what I came up with. My first draft was 1200 words long, so it took a lot of butchering to get it down to something managable (it's now 500 words--yay!) I'm open to comments and criticisms if anyone has one. Unless you're just writing to call me a hippie. That's understood.

Here is the latest version (updated October 30):

The greatest threat facing the United States over the next twenty years is the lack of a coherent strategic vision. The dipolar world power structure collapsed with the Soviet Union, and the current paradigm requires a new set of strategies. Competitors for power are challenging us in new ways: militarily, economically, and ideologically. We must create a vision of international cooperation to counteract our competitors’ attempts to undermine our strength. A failure to establish such a vision of a new global rules set threatens our ability to be a leader in the global forum.

The United States thrives on trade with open market nations but is seriously disadvantaged when dealing with the restrictions of closed markets. For example, China’s access to our open market gives their economy many trade benefits while our lack of access to theirs is a significant hindrance, and they are currently using this advantage to engage in economic warfare with us. The lack of Chinese intellectual property regulations has resulted in rampant copyright infringement, and they are using stolen technology, government subsidies, and punishing tariffs to compete. Their investment in US debt puts us at a strategic disadvantage, and the dumping of 150 billion dollars of debt on the world market would cause a dramatic increase in domestic long term interest rates and threaten a global recession. The Chinese are aggressively competing with us for resources such as oil, wood, and metals in an attempt to control international markets. We must create and actively promote a global marketplace that protects free and open markets and provides incentives for other economic powers to work cooperatively or Chinese-style economic warfare will become the dominant mode of trade.

As the pre-eminent military superpower in the world we have the capability to defeat any other military power. Ensuring the stability of the world theater, however, requires understanding our competitors’ motivations and ensuring that the costs of conflict are greater than the benefits. We must position ourselves strategically now, while we have the advantage, to create disincentives for armed conflict and instability, as any outbreak of hostility must be countered before international or American will is exhausted. If we work under the auspices of international institutions, as we did in Afghanistan, the "hearts and minds" are already ours; if we build ad hoc coalitions in defiance of the international community, as we did in Iraq, we will have lost the trust and cooperation of those we need.

Nations who want to undermine our global strength will use any means to damage our position, including supporting non-state actors such as Al-Qaeda. In order to confront their threats we must craft a coherent strategy and create a national defense mission that considers these issues in an integrated manner. A comprehensive analysis of our competitors is necessary to create a strategy that helps us show the world that it is in their best interests to work with us and that no nation will benefit by economic, military, or ideological conflict with the United States of America.